2026 Nepean state by-election

I think grouping these election facts in one paragraph makes the most sense

← Previous revision Revision as of 10:14, 29 April 2026 Line 49: Line 49: Usually a safe [[Victorian Liberal Party|Liberal]] seat, the district of Nepean, formerly known as [[Electoral district of Dromana|Dromana]], was won by [[Victorian Labor Party|Labor]] for only the second time in its history{{efn|The electoral district of Nepean was first contested at the [[2002 Victorian state election]], but had existed in much the same form as the electoral district of Dromana since 1967. Labor had won Dromana once in its history — at the [[1982 Victorian state election|1982 state election]], when the government of [[John Cain (41st Premier of Victoria)|John Cain]] was first elected.<ref name="Green-2022" />}} at the [[2018 Victorian state election]], with [[Chris Brayne]] elected as the MP for the seat. Nepean covers the southernmost end of the [[Mornington Peninsula]] from [[Safety Beach]] to [[Portsea, Victoria|Portsea]].<ref name="Green-2022" /><ref name="Cowie-2022">{{cite news |last1=Cowie |first1=Tom |title=The accidental MP and former tennis pro contesting one of Victoria's tightest seats |url=https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-accidental-mp-and-former-tennis-pro-contesting-one-of-victoria-s-tightest-seats-20221118-p5bziu.html |access-date=19 February 2026 |work=[[The Age]] |date=20 November 2022 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/iU9TY |archive-date=19 February 2026 |url-status=live |url-access=limited}}</ref> As of the [[2021 Australian census|2021 census]], the electorate of Nepean was older, less ethnically diverse, and poorer than the state average.<ref name="Kolovos-2026c">{{cite news |last1=Kolovos |first1=Benita |title=Postcard-picture reputation v reality: can the Liberals fight off One Nation and a strong independent on the Mornington Peninsula? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/26/postcard-picture-reputation-v-reality-can-the-liberals-fight-off-one-nation-and-a-strong-independent-on-the-mornington-peninsula |access-date=26 April 2026 |work=[[The Guardian]] |date=26 April 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260426042812/https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/26/postcard-picture-reputation-v-reality-can-the-liberals-fight-off-one-nation-and-a-strong-independent-on-the-mornington-peninsula |archive-date=26 April 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref> Following a boundary redistribution, Nepean had a [[Redistribution (Australia)#Notional seat status|notional margin]] of 0.7 percent for Labor.<ref name="Cowie-2022" /> Liberal candidate [[Sam Groth]] succeeded at unseating Brayne at the [[2022 Victorian state election]], with a swing of 7.1 percent towards the Liberal Party.<ref name="Green-2022">{{cite web |last1=Green |first1=Antony |author1-link=Antony Green |title=Nepean (Key Seat) - VIC Election 2022 |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/nepe |publisher=[[ABC News (Australia)|ABC News]] |access-date=19 February 2026 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/jcseJ |archive-date=19 February 2026 |date=26 November 2022 |url-status=live}}</ref> Groth was a former professional tennis player and subsequently a sports commentator, and had lived in [[Rye, Victoria|Rye]] for a number of years preceding the 2022 election.<ref name="Cowie-2022" /> Usually a safe [[Victorian Liberal Party|Liberal]] seat, the district of Nepean, formerly known as [[Electoral district of Dromana|Dromana]], was won by [[Victorian Labor Party|Labor]] for only the second time in its history{{efn|The electoral district of Nepean was first contested at the [[2002 Victorian state election]], but had existed in much the same form as the electoral district of Dromana since 1967. Labor had won Dromana once in its history — at the [[1982 Victorian state election|1982 state election]], when the government of [[John Cain (41st Premier of Victoria)|John Cain]] was first elected.<ref name="Green-2022" />}} at the [[2018 Victorian state election]], with [[Chris Brayne]] elected as the MP for the seat. Nepean covers the southernmost end of the [[Mornington Peninsula]] from [[Safety Beach]] to [[Portsea, Victoria|Portsea]].<ref name="Green-2022" /><ref name="Cowie-2022">{{cite news |last1=Cowie |first1=Tom |title=The accidental MP and former tennis pro contesting one of Victoria's tightest seats |url=https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-accidental-mp-and-former-tennis-pro-contesting-one-of-victoria-s-tightest-seats-20221118-p5bziu.html |access-date=19 February 2026 |work=[[The Age]] |date=20 November 2022 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/iU9TY |archive-date=19 February 2026 |url-status=live |url-access=limited}}</ref> As of the [[2021 Australian census|2021 census]], the electorate of Nepean was older, less ethnically diverse, and poorer than the state average.<ref name="Kolovos-2026c">{{cite news |last1=Kolovos |first1=Benita |title=Postcard-picture reputation v reality: can the Liberals fight off One Nation and a strong independent on the Mornington Peninsula? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/26/postcard-picture-reputation-v-reality-can-the-liberals-fight-off-one-nation-and-a-strong-independent-on-the-mornington-peninsula |access-date=26 April 2026 |work=[[The Guardian]] |date=26 April 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260426042812/https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/26/postcard-picture-reputation-v-reality-can-the-liberals-fight-off-one-nation-and-a-strong-independent-on-the-mornington-peninsula |archive-date=26 April 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref> Following a boundary redistribution, Nepean had a [[Redistribution (Australia)#Notional seat status|notional margin]] of 0.7 percent for Labor.<ref name="Cowie-2022" /> Liberal candidate [[Sam Groth]] succeeded at unseating Brayne at the [[2022 Victorian state election]], with a swing of 7.1 percent towards the Liberal Party.<ref name="Green-2022">{{cite web |last1=Green |first1=Antony |author1-link=Antony Green |title=Nepean (Key Seat) - VIC Election 2022 |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/nepe |publisher=[[ABC News (Australia)|ABC News]] |access-date=19 February 2026 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/jcseJ |archive-date=19 February 2026 |date=26 November 2022 |url-status=live}}</ref> Groth was a former professional tennis player and subsequently a sports commentator, and had lived in [[Rye, Victoria|Rye]] for a number of years preceding the 2022 election.<ref name="Cowie-2022" />

Groth announced on 5 January 2026 that he not would seek re-election at the upcoming [[2026 Victorian state election]], citing "public pressure placed on my family", some of which he stated had come from within the Liberal Party.<ref name="Kolovos-2026a">{{cite news |last1=Kolovos |first1=Benita |title=Sam Groth to quit Victorian politics after defamation battle with News Corp and internal party divisions |url=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/05/sam-groth-quit-victorian-politics-liberal-party-ntwnfb |access-date=19 February 2026 |work=[[The Guardian]] |date=5 January 2026 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/au9Lb |archive-date=19 February 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref> Groth had previously sued [[The Herald and Weekly Times]] for defamation, over the newspapers' distribution of the allegation that he had started a relationship with his wife before she had reached the [[age of consent]].<ref name="Kolovos-2026a" /> The [[Herald Sun]] apologised for these claims in late 2025, and lawyers for both Groth and his wife have stated the allegation is false.<ref name="Kolovos-2026a" /> On 4 February, the office of Victorian Liberal Party leader [[Jess Wilson]] confirmed that Groth intended to resign imminently from the [[Victorian Parliament]], triggering a by-election in the electoral district of Nepean.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Willingham |first1=Richard |title=Former deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth quits Victorian parliament, triggering Nepean by-election |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/sam-groth-quits-victorian-parliament-nepean-by-election/106304976 |work=[[ABC News (Australia)|ABC News]] |access-date=19 February 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260204033254/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/sam-groth-quits-victorian-parliament-nepean-by-election/106304976 |archive-date=4 February 2026 |date=4 February 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref> Groth resigned from parliament on 13 February 2026.<ref name="Hansard-2026">{{cite Hansard |jurisdiction=Victoria |house=[[Victorian Legislative Assembly|Legislative Assembly]] |url=https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/491e7a/globalassets/hansard-daily-pdfs/hansard-2145855009-34343/hansard-2145855009-34343.pdf |title=Member for Nepean - Resignation |page=1 |speaker=[[Maree Edwards]] |position=[[Speaker of the Victorian Legislative Assembly|Speaker]] |date=17 February 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260219010004/https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/491e7a/globalassets/hansard-daily-pdfs/hansard-2145855009-34343/hansard-2145855009-34343.pdf |archive-date=19 February 2026 |url-status=live |quote=I wish to announce that on 13 February 2026 I received the resignation of the member for Nepean. I will issue a writ for a by-election in due course.}}</ref><ref name="VEC-Schedule">{{cite press release |title=Nepean District by-election announced for May 2026 |url=https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/about-us/media/nepean-district-by-election-announced |publisher=[[Victorian Electoral Commission]] |access-date=8 April 2026 |date=13 March 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260408020958/https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/about-us/media/nepean-district-by-election-announced |archive-date=8 April 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref> The by-election is in close proximity to the [[2026 Victorian state election|Victorian state election]], which will be held in November 2026.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Deery |first1=Shannon |title=Liberal MP Sam Groth to resign from politics next week, forcing Nepean by-election |url=https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/liberal-mp-sam-groth-to-resign-from-politics-as-early-as-next-week-forcing-nepean-byelection/news-story/c895229613a871363e559a469728a873 |access-date=29 April 2026 |work=[[Herald Sun]] |date=4 February 2026 |url-access=subscription}}</ref> Groth announced on 5 January 2026 that he not would seek re-election at the upcoming [[2026 Victorian state election]], citing "public pressure placed on my family", some of which he stated had come from within the Liberal Party.<ref name="Kolovos-2026a">{{cite news |last1=Kolovos |first1=Benita |title=Sam Groth to quit Victorian politics after defamation battle with News Corp and internal party divisions |url=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/05/sam-groth-quit-victorian-politics-liberal-party-ntwnfb |access-date=19 February 2026 |work=[[The Guardian]] |date=5 January 2026 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/au9Lb |archive-date=19 February 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref> Groth had previously sued [[The Herald and Weekly Times]] for defamation, over the newspapers' distribution of the allegation that he had started a relationship with his wife before she had reached the [[age of consent]].<ref name="Kolovos-2026a" /> The [[Herald Sun]] apologised for these claims in late 2025, and lawyers for both Groth and his wife have stated the allegation is false.<ref name="Kolovos-2026a" /> On 4 February, the office of Victorian Liberal Party leader [[Jess Wilson]] confirmed that Groth intended to resign imminently from the [[Victorian Parliament]], triggering a by-election in the electoral district of Nepean.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Willingham |first1=Richard |title=Former deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth quits Victorian parliament, triggering Nepean by-election |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/sam-groth-quits-victorian-parliament-nepean-by-election/106304976 |work=[[ABC News (Australia)|ABC News]] |access-date=19 February 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260204033254/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/sam-groth-quits-victorian-parliament-nepean-by-election/106304976 |archive-date=4 February 2026 |date=4 February 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref> Groth resigned from parliament on 13 February 2026.<ref name="Hansard-2026">{{cite Hansard |jurisdiction=Victoria |house=[[Victorian Legislative Assembly|Legislative Assembly]] |url=https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/491e7a/globalassets/hansard-daily-pdfs/hansard-2145855009-34343/hansard-2145855009-34343.pdf |title=Member for Nepean - Resignation |page=1 |speaker=[[Maree Edwards]] |position=[[Speaker of the Victorian Legislative Assembly|Speaker]] |date=17 February 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260219010004/https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/491e7a/globalassets/hansard-daily-pdfs/hansard-2145855009-34343/hansard-2145855009-34343.pdf |archive-date=19 February 2026 |url-status=live |quote=I wish to announce that on 13 February 2026 I received the resignation of the member for Nepean. I will issue a writ for a by-election in due course.}}</ref><ref name="VEC-Schedule">{{cite press release |title=Nepean District by-election announced for May 2026 |url=https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/about-us/media/nepean-district-by-election-announced |publisher=[[Victorian Electoral Commission]] |access-date=8 April 2026 |date=13 March 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260408020958/https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/about-us/media/nepean-district-by-election-announced |archive-date=8 April 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref>

The by-election was also preceded by the [[2026 South Australian state election]], held six weeks prior, at which [[One Nation]] polled 23 per cent of the statewide primary vote. Alongside the [[2026 Farrer by-election|Farrer by-election]], to be held a week later, the Nepean by-election is considered a test for One Nation's broader electoral prospects across Australia, and specifically in advance of the Victorian state election.<ref name="Green-2026">{{cite news |last1=Green |first1=Antony |author1-link=Antony Green |title=VIC2026 – Nepean by-election |url=https://antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-nepean-by-election/ |access-date=29 April 2026 |work=Antony Green's Election Blog |date=29 April 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260429094751/https://antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-nepean-by-election/ |archive-date=29 April 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Ghazarian |first1=Zareh |last2=Moffitt |first2=Benjamin |title=Pauline Hanson’s One Nation surges – Farrer and Nepean byelections to decide its lower house fate |url=https://lens.monash.edu/pauline-hansons-one-nation-surges-farrer-and-nepean-byelections-to-decide-its-lower-house-fate/ |access-date=29 April 2026 |work=Monash Lens |publisher=[[Monash University]] |date=28 April 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260429095536/https://lens.monash.edu/pauline-hansons-one-nation-surges-farrer-and-nepean-byelections-to-decide-its-lower-house-fate/ |archive-date=29 April 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref> The by-election is in close proximity to the [[2026 Victorian state election|Victorian state election]], which will be held in November 2026.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Deery |first1=Shannon |title=Liberal MP Sam Groth to resign from politics next week, forcing Nepean by-election |url=https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/liberal-mp-sam-groth-to-resign-from-politics-as-early-as-next-week-forcing-nepean-byelection/news-story/c895229613a871363e559a469728a873 |access-date=29 April 2026 |work=[[Herald Sun]] |date=4 February 2026 |url-access=subscription}}</ref> It is also preceded by the [[2026 South Australian state election]], held six weeks prior, at which [[One Nation]] polled 23 per cent of the statewide primary vote. Alongside the [[2026 Farrer by-election|Farrer by-election]], to be held a week later, the Nepean by-election is considered a test for One Nation's broader electoral prospects across Australia, and specifically in advance of the Victorian state election.<ref name="Green-2026">{{cite news |last1=Green |first1=Antony |author1-link=Antony Green |title=VIC2026 – Nepean by-election |url=https://antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-nepean-by-election/ |access-date=29 April 2026 |work=Antony Green's Election Blog |date=29 April 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260429094751/https://antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-nepean-by-election/ |archive-date=29 April 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Ghazarian |first1=Zareh |last2=Moffitt |first2=Benjamin |title=Pauline Hanson’s One Nation surges – Farrer and Nepean byelections to decide its lower house fate |url=https://lens.monash.edu/pauline-hansons-one-nation-surges-farrer-and-nepean-byelections-to-decide-its-lower-house-fate/ |access-date=29 April 2026 |work=Monash Lens |publisher=[[Monash University]] |date=28 April 2026 |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20260429095536/https://lens.monash.edu/pauline-hansons-one-nation-surges-farrer-and-nepean-byelections-to-decide-its-lower-house-fate/ |archive-date=29 April 2026 |url-status=live}}</ref>

==Key dates== ==Key dates==